Biden brings more troops and sanctions to NATO amid rising fears of Russian chemical warfare

Three pressing threats loom large over the summit, requiring the alliance to figure out its response and whether military intervention would be needed: mistaken fire on an allied nation, cyber attacks to critical infrastructure of a NATO member state and the possibility of chemical or biological warfare within Ukraine, according to experts. 

NATO leaders are also expected to announce more humanitarian aid to Ukraine, particularly the embattled port city of Mariupol, a fresh round of sanctions and new pressure on Moscow’s energy sector.

As the war nears its second month and Russia’s battle deaths soar past 7,000 with almost nothing to show for them, experts say it’s becoming inevitable that Moscow will try new ways to hit back at Kyiv and its backers — both within Ukraine and beyond its frontiers.

Inside Ukraine, the possibility that a desperate Putin could resort to weapons of mass destruction is one of the things that keeps security experts up at night. So does the prospect of a deadlier repeat of last month’s indiscriminate Russian attack on the nuclear reactors at Chornobyl and Zaporizhzhia, where soldiers fired at a reactor that was thankfully offline. 

If Russia had fired on one of the reactors that happened to be online, “that would have caused a nuclear disaster, and we’d basically be looking at trying to evacuate a quarter of Europe — maybe a half of Europe — depending on the wind,” said Scheherazade Rehman, director of the European Union Research Center at George Washington University.

While international nuclear regulators have said the plants are stable and aren’t leaking radiation, the prospect of renewed fighting near them has scientists and European leaders on edge.

The threat of a cyber attack against the United States has evolved so significantly in the past week that the White House has sprung into action, both behind the scenes and in public, to place potential targets of a Russian attack on “shields up” high alert. 

The worry is that Kremlin will launch a major cyber attack on America’s critical infrastructure, likely either against an energy company or a utility provider, Biden administration officials have said.

While there is no doubt the United States would impose grave costs on Russia for any cyber attack that targeted infrastructure Americans rely upon, it’s not a given that the entire NATO alliance would respond exactly the same way if there were a Russian cyber attack against an American, non-military target. 

According to NATO’s founding charter, a cyber attack against one ally is considered an attack against all the allies. Enshrined in the charter’s fifth article, the concept that all NATO members will collectively defend any one NATO member is often referred to simply as the “Article 5” commitment.

“The most important item for NATO to decide with cyber this week is where the line is that triggers an Article 5 response, because it’s all fuzzy right now,” said Rehman, of George Washington University. “Who has to get hurt? And how badly, for us to say, ‘Okay, it’s time’?” 

Smaller nations, like say, Estonia, they may have a harder time convincing members to execute Article 5, Rehman said in a subtle reference to the massive 2007 Russian cyberattack against Estonia that lasted for months and led to a deadly riot.

“But when the Americans shout ‘Article Five,’ no one questions that, and the same applies to any of the larger economies like Germany or France. If they decide to call it, that it crossed the line, then that’s it,” said Rehman. “But then, realize that now we have a third issue: Where that line is, and what it is, and now, for which country?”

There is also a real possibility Russian soldiers could accidentally fire over the border into a NATO member state with Poland identified as the most likely landing spot. 

“The number one item on the table at NATO should be, ‘How do you handle a mistake?'” said Rehman of George Washington University.

“The Russian army is young and inexperienced and they’re sitting on these frozen borders, not knowing what they’re doing or where they’re going, with their communications down,” Rehman told CNBC in an interview Tuesday.

During his trip to Brussels this week, Biden and NATO allies are expected to commit more troops closer to Ukraine, and to discuss whether to keep them there semi-permanently. 

The United States currently has around 100,000 troops stationed across Europe, with more than 38,000 of them in Germany, according to the Defense Department. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted Biden to shift several thousand American soldiers to countries on NATO’s eastern flank. 

Since the start of the war, the besieged city on Ukraine’s eastern edge has emerged as a symbol to the world of just how much suffering  Putin is willing to inflict upon civilians — and the stoic bravery of average Ukrainians. 

As of Wednesday, 100,000 residents remained trapped in the city without food, clean water, heat, electricity or medical supplies, amid relentless Russian bombardment. 

There are growing signs this week that Europe and the United States are prepared to go farther than ever before towards an embargo on Russian oil and gas, but it was unclear Wednesday what would be announced while Biden is in Brussels. 

“The most important step in terms of sanctions is also the most complicated, and that is that the West needs to cut off all purchases of oil and energy supplies from Russia,” said Durlauf, of the University of Chicago.

The United States already banned imports of Russian oil and gas in early March, a decision made much easier by the fact that America is a producer of oil and gas. Few European countries can say the same.

On Monday, EU foreign ministers reached an impasse over a full embargo on Russian oil, with Germany reportedly leading the bloc of hesitant countries. 

Biden is also meeting in Brussels with leaders of the EU and the G-7 group of developed economies, which plan to announce fresh sanctions on Russian elites and members of the government. 

“The sanctions have been extraordinarily rapid and extraordinarily powerful, but the next steps have to be taken to continue to put pressure on Russia — be it the elites, be it the regime itself or be it the population,” said Durlauf.

Specifically, the joint alliances will unveil a package of new individual sanctions targeting approximately 400 people, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. This will include more than 300 lawmakers from the Russian lower house of parliament, the Duma and Russian elites.

“In an authoritarian regime like this, it’s complicated to know where we exert pressure. But the sanctions put pressure on all the dimensions of the polity, and that has to be continued and has to be enhanced,” Durlauf told CNBC.